In the world of fantasy football, quarterback is king. Typically, they score the most points and get all of the credit. For the purposes of this article, we won’t focus on superflex leagues. I want to talk about the value of a quarterback and why you should be looking at other positions earlier in your draft. With guys like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson changing the way QB’s are valued, it’s hard to turn them down in the second, or even first, round. But are they worth the cost? Let’s take a look.
Point differential
So why pass on a quarterback who is going to give you 25 points a game? That’s crazy right? Well, it all depends on how you look at point differential. If we take out the top scorers at each position and look at finishers #2-#20, you’ll see the drop off is significantly different. This is based on average points per game, not total points.
Deshaun Watson averaged the second highest points per game (22.13) for quarterbacks. Andy Dalton was 20th at 16.67 points per game. That’s only a 25 percent drop off for someone who’s ADP was in the 11th round. Now if we look at running backs, Dalvin Cook was second in points per game at 20.9. Joe Mixon ranked 20th with 14.1 points per game. This is a 33 percent drop off! As you can see the demand for elite running backs is significantly higher, which is why they are typically drafted higher.
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QB/RB PPG Scores in 2019
| QB Rank | QB Points | RB Rank | RB Points | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 2 | 22.13 | RB 20 | 14.1 | 36.23 |
| QB 3 | 21.8 | RB 19 | 14.3 | 36.1 |
| QB 4 | 21.45 | RB 18 | 14.6 | 36.05 |
| QB 5 | 20.96 | RB 17 | 14.6 | 35.56 |
| QB 6 | 20.86 | RB 16 | 14.7 | 35.56 |
| QB 7 | 20.85 | RB 15 | 15.1 | 35.95 |
| QB 8 | 20.8 | RB 14 | 15.3 | 36.1 |
| QB 9 | 19.18 | RB 13 | 15.5 | 34.68 |
| QB 10 | 18.76 | RB 12 | 16 | 34.76 |
| QB 11 | 18.6 | RB 11 | 16.2 | 34.8 |
| QB 12 | 18.58 | RB 10 | 16.2 | 34.78 |
| QB 13 | 17.68 | RB 9 | 17.3 | 34.98 |
| QB 14 | 17.65 | RB 8 | 17.8 | 35.45 |
| QB 15 | 17.46 | RB 7 | 18.8 | 36.26 |
| QB 16 | 16.98 | RB 6 | 19.3 | 36.28 |
| QB 17 | 16.96 | RB 5 | 19.5 | 36.46 |
| QB 18 | 16.8 | RB 4 | 19.6 | 36.4 |
| QB 19 | 16.69 | RB 3 | 19.7 | 36.39 |
| QB 20 | 16.67 | RB 2 | 20.9 | 37.57 |
*Based on 2019 ppg averages
Availability
Every NFL team has a starting quarterback. Unless there’s an injury, it’s expected that the quarterback will play the entire game. Every other position is split. Running back committees, three or four receivers on the field at the same time. Two tight end sets or two running back sets. Carries, targets and receptions are never guaranteed. This makes it important to get guys who will likely get the ball more often. Workhorses like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Michael Thomas consistently get the ball in their offenses which is why they’re so valuable.
As previously stated, quarterbacks differ very little in terms of points per game. If you have the chance to start your draft RB, WR, RB, WR, you’re giving yourself a mathematical edge. I put together two separate charts pairing the top QB’s with the top RB’s in reverse order. If you had the #20 quarterback paired with the #2 running back, as opposed to the #2 quarterback and #20 running back, your PPG average would go up a full point.
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Understanding when you should take a quarterback
Having the data to make a decision is great, but you also need to know when to use that data to make an informed decision. You need to be flexible in your strategy and adapt to the draft. As quarterbacks start to come off the board, plan ahead. I am constantly comparing QB’s by looking at passing attempt projections as well as completion percentage.
You’d be surprised how many times QB’s with similar projected passing attempts and yards are taken four to five rounds apart. There are also quarterbacks who can run which can complicate the timing of when you should draft a quarterback. This is where you need to really look at your league’s scoring settings to see if drafting a running QB has more value than a traditional pocket passer.
Hopefully this gives you some understanding of the quarterback position and how it relates to scoring in fantasy football. The key takeaway is that we’re setting our teams up for failure if look at points per game without also factoring in position demand.
