Last minute fantasy football sit/starts for week 1

Cam Newton vs. Dolphins

The former Carolina Panther makes his New England Patriots debut against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins added a few pieces to their defense in the offseason but is it enough to stop Newton? Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has never had a QB like Newton before, so look for him to mix it up and get Newton involved in the run game. With Newton on a one-year contract, the Patriots won’t be afraid to put Newton out there and take some hits. It could be a big day in Foxborough for Newton and the Patriots offense.

Josh Allen vs Jets

The New York Jets lost their best player this offseason, safety Jamal Adams. Adams was a do-it-all, hard hitting safety. He could play linebacker, corner and safety. He even led the team in sacks last season. Without Adams, the Jets secondary looks completely different. If Allen can connect with new Buffalo Bills‘ wideout Stefon Diggs, it could be a long day for the Jets. Allen is also a threat with his legs which gives him a higher floor than other passers, despite the Jets having a tough run defense.

Baker Mayfield vs Ravens

The Cleveland Browns start the season on the road against the feisty Ravens defense. This unit could give Baker fits throughout this game. They ranked second in touchdown passes allowed last season and look solid despite Earl Thomas being released. On offense, it has been speculated that the Browns will look to run the ball more this year under new Head Coach Kevin Stefanski. Given the fact they have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, that’s not a bad idea.

Daniel Jones vs Steelers

Optimism is high this year in New York for quarterback Daniel Jones as he enters his second season. After putting up decent numbers at the end of the 2019, the Giants are expected to give Jones more reign over the offense. They hired Jason Garrett in the offseason in hopes that he can for Jones what he did for Tony Romo and Dak Prescott in Dallas.

The problem is the Giants week 1 matchup versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers finished in the top six in both points and passing yards allowed last year. TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joe Haden and Bud Dupree are all still here. They don’t make a lot of mistakes and will force Jones out of the pocket. The Giants were near the bottom in time of possession last year, so if they want to have a shot at putting points on the board, they need to improve in that area.

Todd Gurley vs Seahawks

Todd Gurley makes his Atlanta Falcons debut against the Seattle Seahawks. Offensive Coordinator Dirk Koetter says that he wants Gurley to have at least 15 touches per game this season. Throw in his pass catching ability and it’s easy to see why he could have a good day. The Falcons are going to throw the ball a lot this year leaving the box open for Gurley to make plays. With no real threat to take away touches, Gurley could see a lot of action, especially early in the season. The Seahawks struggled stopping the run last season when they gave up the third most touchdowns to opposing offenses.

Josh Jacobs vs Panthers

The Las Vegas Raiders could surprise some teams this year in the AFC. They are slowly building their offense and have added a bunch of new wide receivers. They have a solid offensive line and Jacobs will be the focus of their offense. The Panthers on the other hand lost defensive leader Luke Kuechly this offseason. They were on of the worst defenses in football against the run last season, giving up the most rushing TDs and fourth most rushing yards. The Raiders offensive line should be able to control the game, and Jacobs could get plenty of opportunities to score on Sunday.

Leonard Fournette vs Saints

It’s been a wild couple weeks in the football world for Fournette. He was already being drafted “too high” then “too low” in fantasy football circles before he was waived by the Jacksonville Jaguars in August. He was picked up by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a few days later. His role on the team is yet to be determined with Ronald Jones II set to get plenty of carries as well.

On paper this team looks really good and rightfully so. The offense is getting most of the attention with Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski joining Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Throw in Fournette along with Ronald Jones II and you realize that someone won’t get the looks they deserve. The offensive philosophy with Brady at the helm won’t be anything like the Jameis Winston-era in Tampa. The Bucs will be a passing team, but more meticulous and calculated. Fournette just won’t get the same workload against a good Saints defense.

Jordan Howard vs Patriots

These are not the same Patriots we are used to seeing on defense, but Bill Belichick is a defensive mastermind. He loses key players to free agency year after year because he refuses to pay them and still pumps out top five numbers on that side of the ball. The run defense of the Patriots was among the best last season. They gave up the fewest rushing touchdowns to opposing teams while allowing the sixth fewest rushing yards.

With an entire offseason to game plan, Belichick will have his team ready for Miami. What does that mean for Jordan Howard? While he is a solid addition to this Miami offense, there isn’t a worse team to debut against. Howard will also be splitting carries with Matt Breida who will likely be in on passing situations. Another concern has to be the offensive line for the Miami Dolphins. To put it blunt, it’s one of the worst lines in football. They drafted USC lineman Austin Jackson the first round, but they will still find it hard to block for Howard in week 1.

AJ Brown vs Broncos

Brown broke out in his rookie season scoring nine touchdowns for the Titans. He was the go-to guy for Ryan Tannehill. He ranked third in the NFL in yards per reception, proving to be one of the most dangerous deep threats in the game. More of the same is expected for Brown, who will look to improve on his rookie season.

For the Denver Broncos, they will be without one of their best defensive players in Von Miller who injured his ankle earlier this week. Former first round pick Bradley Chubb is returning from an ACL injury will likely see limited action as he works his way back into the rotation. The loss of Miller, who was the anchor for this defense, will give Tannehill more time to throw which bodes well for Brown.

DeSean Jackson vs Washington Football Team

No this isn’t 2012. DeSean Jackson is still relevant…for this week anyway. He is one of the few options at receiver for the Eagles offense in week 1. For those of you who play DFS, Jackson is one of the most popular plays because of his price. Jackson scorched Washington last year to open the season and this year should be similar. Washington did draft Chase Young with the second overall pick, but the team still has many issues to address on defense. Jackson should eat up this Washington secondary who gave up the third most passing touchdowns last season.

Odell Beckham Jr. vs Ravens

I really don’t like this matchup for the Cleveland Browns. As I mentioned earlier, I would bench Baker Mayfield. The passing game will struggle against the Ravens secondary. Beckham struggled in his first Browns game against the Ravens. And while he is always a big play threat, I look for the consistent Jarvis Landry to have a better game than Beckham.

Throw in the newly signed Austin Hooper, who got a huge contract, and it’s hard to see how Beckham gets that many targets. It should also be noted that Mayfield’s passer rating is significantly lower when targeting Beckham. When you have a star like that on your fantasy football team, it is only natural to try and get him the ball but doing so has simply not worked out.

Amari Cooper vs Rams

This one was hard for me to put on my fantasy football sit/starts for week 1 list. Cooper is my favorite Cowboys player and I have many shares of him this year. The problem is that he’s going up against one of the best, and now highest paid, cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey. Cooper struggled last year against Ramsey and the Rams defense only having one reception for 19 yards. With the focus on Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Gallup and Ceedee Lamb could see a majority of the targets in week 1.

Hunter Henry vs Bengals

If Mike Williams misses week 1 for the Los Angeles Chargers, Henry should see an increase in targets. Even if Williams is a go, Henry is a solid start. He faces a Bengals defense that gave up a lot of points to tight ends last year. The concern for fans and fantasy folks is the absence of Philip Rivers. Don’t count out Tyrod Taylor though. His arm and accuracy have been underrated even if his body of work isn’t great. Henry will get plenty of targets and look for him to get some opportunities in the red zone.

Hayden Hurst vs Seahawks

With Austin Hooper now in Cleveland, Hayden Hurst will be the new TE1 in Atlanta. The Falcons offensive philosophy remains pass first. With Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley lining up on the outside, Hurst is expected to see a lot of work in the middle of the field. The Seahawks struggled against tight ends last season, giving up the third most points to that position.

Chris Herndon IV vs Bills

Herndon is a guy who I have as a potential breakout sleeper this year. He looks to be a future star for the Jets. I just don’t believe in him this week against a stingy Bills defense. He will go up against a team that gave up the second fewest yards to tight ends. And while the Jets don’t have many weapons, it is hard to see Herndon being very productive against this monster defense. I could see him salvaging his day with some red zone targets, but that is not a gamble I am willing to take.

Rob Gronkowski vs Saints

After taking a year off and enjoying retirement, Gronk is back in the NFL. He joins his former Patriot teammate Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. Gronk should be well rested and is injury free to start the season. It should be noted that Gronk will also be in a system he’s never seen before. The Bucs have a lot of options on offense and Gronk’s upside may depend a lot on the red zone for points. Mike Evans is listed as doubtful for now, which helps Gronk’s case, but probably won’t lead to more targets. It should be noted the Saints have plenty of defensive weapons to negate tight ends.