We can finally look at 2021 NFL win-total bets after William Hill released the first lines for the upcoming season. A lot of attention has been paid to the two teams in last season’s Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs feature a win total of 12 while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers line is set at 11.5. Neither of these are interesting wagers.
In 2020, we hit on all four of our pre-draft NFL win total wagers. The Packers and Washington Football Team reached the over for us while the Chicago Bears and New York Jets managed to hit the under. This year may be a little trickier.
That’s because the season now has 17 games. We don’t quite know just how things will play out under the new format, but the formula to find the best 2021 NFL win-total bets remains the same. You want to find teams oddsmakers are down on or bullish about for no discernible reason.
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2021 NFL win-total bets: Best overs
Carolina Panthers over 7.5 wins (+110)
Does Sam Darnold and a healthy Christian McCaffrey equal three more wins for the Carolina Panthers in 2021? It’s a bit more complicated than that, but the answer is yes. Looking at the team last season, Carolina lost eight of its 11 games by eight points or less. If anything, they were probably better than their record indicated.
Their schedule this season has a lot of winnable games. Houston, Philadelphia, Minnesota, New England and both New York teams are all friendly non-divisional contests. Carolina also has four NFC South games against the Saints and Falcons that aren’t particularly daunting. It’s not hard to see a path to eight victories assuming Darnold is at least a marginal improvement on Teddy Bridgewater.
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Washington Football Team over 8 wins (-105)
It seems ridiculous that the Dallas Cowboys’ 2021 win-total is set at 9.5 while Washington Football Team is at eight. With Ryan Fitzpatrick taking his talents to the nation’s capital, this team should be favored to win the NFC East for a second consecutive year. And yet, Vegas has them to finish the season with a losing record. This is an easy over to take.
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2021 NFL win-total bets: Best unders
Pittsburgh Steelers under 9 wins (-125)
After winning their first 11 games in 2020, the Pittsburgh Steelers lost four of their last five contests including the AFC Wild Card game against the Browns. What was really concerning is just how the team lost. Pittsburgh looked slow, old and totally out of sorts. And now they are simply going to run it back with Ben Roethlisberger and company.
Perhaps the biggest issue facing the Steelers in 2021 is the fact every team in the AFC North has improved. They aren’t as good as the Ravens and Browns. It is also easy to see the Bengals being better than them. What’s worse, Pittsburgh has an extremely difficult schedule including road games against the Chiefs, Bills and Packers.
Houston Texans under 5 wins (-130)
The Houston Texans are simply awful. Their roster is a mess, and the quarterback doesn’t want to be there. Speaking of the signal caller, Deshaun Watson is also facing legal issues who knows what his status is for the upcoming season. It’s difficult to envision this team winning three games in 2021 let alone more than five.
