No one cares about the late round running back you think will be a fantasy football star

Anthony McFarland isn’t good. This was fairly obvious to most people during his college career. And then someone cobbled together a highlight video for him in the week leading up to the 2020 NFL Draft. He went from just some guy to the next late round running back people thought would become a fantasy football star.

Let’s fast forward to today. The Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Najee Harris in the first round after McFarland looked incredibly pedestrian in limited action last season. So, with all due respect, no one cares about the late round running back taken in the 2021 NFL Draft you think is going to be a fantasy football star in 2021.

You have to go back to 2017 in order to understand why this is a thing. The draft that year saw Tarik Cowen, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones and Chris Carson all selected in the fourth round or later. It was an anomaly that many people playing fantasy football took as gospel. Everyone wanted to be the person who predicted the next late round running back who would become a fantasy football star.

Since that historic 2017 draft, way too many people have spent way too much time trying to explain why some fourth, fifth, sixth or seventh round running back is good. And that’s because every college running back has a great highlight video on YouTube. The problem is these videos means absolutely nothing.

History shows us that most late round running backs will wash out while a couple may contribute. Every once in a while, a starter emerges, but this is few and far between. When it does happen, it is more a product of situation than talent. This is why no one cares about the late round running back you think will be a fantasy football star. It’s just a guessing game. The past three seasons prove that.

More Fantasy: Jordan Reed and the “what if” fantasy football all-stars

2018

4^th Round

• Nyheim Hines – Indianapolis Colts
• Mark Walton – Cincinnati Bengals
• Ito Smith – Atlanta Falcons
• Kalen Ballage – Miami Dolphins
• Chase Edmonds – Arizona Cardinals

5^th Round

• Jordan Wilkins – Indianapolis Colts

6^th Round

• John Kelly – Los Angeles Rams
• Boston Scott – New Orleans Saints
• Trenton Cannon – New York Jets
• David Williams – Denver Broncos
• Bo Scarbrough – Dallas Cowboys
• Justin Jackson – Los Angeles Chargers

Recap

Chase Edmonds has been okay at times for the Arizona Cardinals while Nyheim Hines has had a couple of good fantasy games. Justin Jackson is a decent backup. However, none of those guys are starters and everyone else drafted in 2018 could best be described at flotsam.

2019

4^th Round

• Justice Hill – Baltimore Ravens
• Benny Snell – Pittsburgh Steelers
• Tony Pollard – Dallas Cowboys

5^th Round

• Ryquell Armstead – Jacksonville Jaguars
• Qadree Ollison – Pittsburgh Steelers
• Jordan Scarlett – Carolina Panthers

6^th Round

• Trayveon Williams – Cincinnati Bengals
• Ty Johnson – Detroit Lions
• Dexter Williams – Green Bay Packers
• Travis Homer – Seattle Seahawks
• Rodney Anderson – Cincinnati Bengals
• Darwin Thompson – Kansas City Chiefs

7^th Round

• Mike Weber – Dallas Cowboys
• Kerrith Whyte Jr. – Chicago Bears
• Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins

Recap

All anyone wanted to talk about in 2019 was Darwin Thompson and Justice Hill but neither guy has done anything in the NFL. Tony Pollard has been above average as the backup to Ezekiel Elliot. Despite starting seven games last season for the Miami Dolphins, Myles Gaskin has done little to dispel the notion he is this generation’s Karim Abdul-Jabbar.

2020

4^th Round

• Joshua Kelley – Los Angeles Chargers
• La’Mical Perine – New York Jets
• Anthony McFarland – Pittsburgh Steelers
• DeeJay Dallas – Seattle Seahawks

5^th Round

• Jason Huntley – Detroit Lions

7^th Round

• Eno Benjamin – Arizona Cardinals
• Raymond Calais – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Recap

This group is just gross. It is baffling people tried to convince others that Joshua Kelley, Eno Benjamin or McFarland would be anything more than backups at this time last year.

Also Interesting: The best fantasy football seasons you don’t remember

Can any 2021 late round running back be a fantasy football star? 

Of course, it is possible. However, history shows us it is unlikely and entirely relies on circumstance than any perceived talent. There have been 34 late round running backs drafted between 2018-2020. Only one is currently a starter. These are bad odds.

Two notable non-2017 examples of late round running back success in the past decade people point to are Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi. But neither player gets on the field without help and their body of work has been less than stellar.

Howard needed injuries to Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey for him to even get on the field in 2016. That’s hardly a dynamic duo. And since his two, 1,000-yard seasons with the Chicago Bears, he has been an afterthought.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins were so skeptical of fifth round selection Ajayi after his rookie campaign that they brought in a washed-up Arian Foster to start. Who knows if he plays had Foster stayed healthy. What’s more, Ajayi had that one good season in 2016 and did next to nothing in the years that follow.

Regardless of how great those 2021 late round rookie running backs look in their college highlight videos, let’s just chill on the talk of them being anything more than roster fillers.