Why not? is a feature on The Touchback exploring bets with longer odds that could plausibly happen. This doesn’t mean these wagers are locks. They are simply ones where you can justify the risk. Today, we look at betting on SMU to win the AAC this season.
The American Athletic Conference is better than most people realize. Cincinnati is a College Football Playoff sleeper while Memphis and UCF have been top-15 programs at various points during the past five seasons. Meanwhile, Houston looks primed for success under Dana Holgorsen and Tulsa was sharp in 2020. But we’re only taking one wager. That’s SMU to win the AAC at +3300 (Odds at Fanduel Sportsbook).
The most interesting thing about the Mustangs is the disconnect between most projections and Vegas bookmakers. The latter group has them as the 6th favorite to win the conference. On the other hand, most media polls have SMU predicted to finish third or fourth in the AAC this season.
It is an important discrepancy to note and one that makes betting on SMU to win the AAC so appealing. Sportsbooks are banking on the fact the Mustangs can’t replace quarterback Shane Buechele, the defense continuing to struggle or both. There is reason to think neither come to pass.
Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai and four-star recruit Preston Stone are currently vying to be starting quarterback. Maybe they both crap out, but that seems unlikely considering just how much talent SMU has on offense. Athlon Sports noted the team boasts the deepest group of running backs and several big-time pass catchers.
On the other side of the football, the Mustangs hired a new defensive coordinator in Jim Leavitt who will try to fix things. His efforts will be aided by some high-profile transfers which should see the unit improve on 2020’s poor showing.
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Should you bet on SMU to win the AAC at +3300?
SMU has the talent to reach the AAC Championship. Even if Cincinnati steamrolls everyone as predicted in 2021, two teams qualify for the title game. And once you’re there, anything can happen. You could also argue the Mustangs are just as talented as UCF, Houston, Memphis and Tulsa. Yet that group of schools are getting shorter odds.
That’s what makes wagering on SMU to win the AAC at +3300 such an attractive proposition. They are clearly one of the top teams in the conference and don’t need much in the way of luck to get over the hump.
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