Roger Goodell and NFL owners tolerate college football for two reasons. First, there is a developmental aspect it provides. Second, it is different enough not to be direct competition. That has changed after this most recent round of realignment. If we’ve learned one thing about the National Football League under its current commissioner, it’s that owners want all the money, and they’ll destroy anything standing in their way.
When the NFL rolled out a Christmas Day tripleheader last season, it was a dick move. They saw what the NBA had and wanted to take their pie. Oh look, the league has another Christmas Day tripleheader set for 2023. There are no rules or decorum for Rodger Goodell when it comes to making money.
That was simply the latest example of league leadership stifling potential competition. Conference commissioners and those running the CFP think they are safe from the death star. It is a level of naivety that gets you destroyed.
Make no mistake, Roger Goodell and NFL owners are coming for college football. Hell, they have already swooped in on Black Friday. A day typically reserved for college football now belongs to the professionals. And after the most recent round of gerrymandering and shenanigans, that is simply the beginning.
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College football is now a competitor
Those inside college football think their sport and the professional version are still different. In reality, that isn’t the case. You have a small concentration of football teams with a champion determined by a large playoff and players are being paid.
College football has always styled itself as sort of a minor league for the NFL. A place where high school kids could develop for a few years and earn a degree before going to the pros. That has been true for the most part, but the landscape is shifting.
Top-level high schools basically operate at a college level these days. There are 18- and 17-year-olds coming out of programs like IMG Academy that are grown adults. There is also an argument to be made that NFL coaches and front offices would prefer to get players in their system early so they can aid and monitor their development.
More importantly, how much longer will Power 5 Conferences truly be a developmental league? Given that major college football tradition has been pissed on, thrown in a ditch and buried, it’s only a matter of time before eligibility is changed.
The first change will likely see student athlete eligibility increased from four to six years so players can pursue their graduate degree. By the end of the decade, there is a chance, and not an insignificant one, that football players are classified as school ambassadors and not students thus making class optional.
In this scenario, college football is no longer a developmental league. While there would still be players who would opt to go to the NFL after three or four seasons, the middle class would face a difficult decision.
Would a big man on campus pass up safe NIL money and visibility to play special teams in the NFL in hopes of moving up the depth chart? Especially considering they can be cut at any moment. First, second and third round draft picks would obviously want to go professional and take their chances. But those late-round guys would have a difficult choice to consider.
Regardless, there is no way Roger Goodell and NFL owners give college football that opportunity. They are a proactive and cutthroat group that will do whatever it takes to expand profits and stay on top. If this were The Wire, the NFL is Avon Barksdale and those leading college football are nothing but hoppers–helpful but expendable.
How would Roger Goodell and NFL owners come for college football?
The NFL has the ultimate trump card in its back pocket that it has yet to play…regular season games not on broadcast television. On any given week, there will be between six to ten matchups only available on Sunday Ticket or in local markets. It is profitable. But they leave a lot of money on the table by letting college football have Saturday uncontested.
That makes little sense in this new world where the two are competing. There is no reason why NFL owners couldn’t slide three matchups over to Saturday each week. And they would get a considerable amount of money to do so. Amazon pays $1 billion annually to broadcast 15 Thursday Night Football games. Imagine what they could get for this Saturday package.
More importantly, college football becomes an afterthought. Sure, some people will still watch it just like the NBA was able to stay afloat on Christmas Day. But things won’t be the same. Overall, viewership numbers will drop. It will be secondary on socials and in the mainstream consciousness. Basically, the NFL will do the same thing to the P5 that those schools did to the G5.
This won’t be an issue at first but will be huge down the road when it comes time for college football conferences to start renegotiating rights deals. They will fight for significantly less money than they receive now seeing as networks won’t want to pay the same amount for smaller TV ratings and viewership.
By the way, this is what Washington State Head Coach Jake Dickert was referring to when he said, “We’ll look back at college football in 20 years and be like, ‘what are we doing?”
Today’s growth will stop because that growth has come via cannibalization. Schools took other schools’ piece of the pie. But now, there is no one else left to eat and the top of the food chain is coming. Of course, that will be a problem for others within the sport to deal with down the road. You have to admire that Boomer logic. Get rich, cause a bunch of damage and let someone else clean it up after you’re dead. What a time to be alive.
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College football won’t die
It is hard to envision a scenario where college football dies, but the NFL will firmly eliminate it as a threat. Schools aren’t going to be able to afford all these expenses. Things will likely return to something closer that resembles the sport we know as opposed to the greedy shameless carcass it has become.
Much like how the Romans went scorched earth on the Carthaginians, Roger Goodell and NFL owners will do something to ensure college football knows its place. Uprisings must be punished. One interesting concept is for a high school draft where the teams have access to the best prospects and develop them for two or three years before having them join the 53-main roster.
This means those 5-star recruits never step foot in a university. The NCAA goes back to being a development proving ground for the NFL, nothing more, nothing less.
Whatever the case may be, we know the NFL isn’t going to stand idly by as college football morphs into a competitor. And despite what those in Des Monies or Tuscaloosa or Clemson or Columbus want to claim, that is precisely what’s happening. Have fun for the next few seasons because trouble is brewing on the horizon.
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