Why not? is a feature on The Touchback that looks at bets with longer odds that could plausibly happen. This doesn’t mean these wagers are locks. They are simply ones where you can justify the risk. Today, we look at betting on the Texas A&M quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy.
Let’s assume there will be a college football season this year for the sake of this article. Wagering on the Heisman Trophy winner is quite interesting because you can get good odds on a lot of players. Perhaps no so more appealing than Kellen Mond to win the Heisman Trophy at +4000 which is what his odds are at William Hill.
Before we look at the case for Mond, we should take a look at some of the betting favorites. Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields leads the field having recently passed Trevor Lawrence of Clemson. That was due in part to the Tigers losing wide receiver Justyn Ross for the season after spinal surgery.
Outside of those two are a bunch of first-year signal callers. There is Oklahoma’s newest quarterback Spencer Rattler, Miami touchdown machine D’Eriq King and Georgia’s Jamie Newman all under +2000 at most sportsbooks. Texas Longhorn passer Sam Ehlinger and Alabama’s Mac Jones are also floating around in that odds range.
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All of these are fine bets, but Kellen Mond to win the Heisman Trophy at +4000 is far more interesting. Even the +3500 found over at Odds Shark is worth a look. Here’s why:
1) His 2019 wasn’t as bad as people think
While Mond’s passing yards and touchdowns decreased between 2018 and 2019, his season wasn’t a total bust as some people claim. His completion percentage actually increased from 57.3 percent to 61.6 percent. He also rushed for more than 500 yards for the first time in his career and scored eight touchdowns on the ground.
In order for Mond to get into the Heisman Trophy conversation, he’ll need to get that completion percentage above 65 percent while throwing for 1,000+ yards more than his previous high of 3107 in 2018. The real issue is that recent Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks have all finished the season with more than 40 touchdowns, a figure Mond has never come close to in his college career.
2) Favorable schedule
A lot has been made of Texas A&M’s schedule this year and Mond will have plenty of time to put up big numbers before an October 17 showdown at Auburn. The Aggies close the season with two potential primetime matchups, at Alabama and home to LSU. These games could push Mond’s Heisman candidacy across the line should he perform well. More importantly, Texas A&M avoids Georgia and Florida, two of the SEC’s better defenses.
3) Texas A&M could rack up a lot of wins
Don’t let the Aggies 8-4 record in 2019 fool you, this team could be in the 2020 National Championship mix. Three of the team’s losses last season came against teams ranked number one in the country at the time. The other game against a fourth-ranked Georgia squad.
Texas A&M got boat raced by Alabama and LSU, were kind of in it against Clemson and put up a fight against the Bulldogs in Athens. If Mond’s play improves and the team takes advantage of its easy schedule, the Aggies could easily be 8-0 heading into November with Mond leading the charge.
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Should you bet on Kellen Mond to win the Heisman Trophy at +4000?
A lot needs to go right for Texas A&M and he needs to improve as a passer, but Kellen Mond to win the Heisman Trophy at +4000 is a wager that’s worth a punt. Fields and Lawrence may be the favorites, but they hardly have a lock on the award. That, coupled with a wide-open SEC race in 2020, make Mond an intriguing bet.
