Betting on the 2022 NFL Draft is a no win proposition. It’s pretty disappointing all things considered. We here at The Touchback really enjoy wagering on the first round and have even had some success at it. In 2021, we nailed two out of our three selections. A year earlier, we went two for two.
However, betting on the 2022 NFL Draft does not tickle our fancy. And we have looked at this every which way. All of our research led us back to a simple conclusion. A combination of uncertainty and unfavorable odds means the risk isn’t worth the reward.
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Here’s why you should avoid betting on the 2022 NFL Draft
There is usually some semblance of certainty heading into most NFL Drafts. Take last year, for example. The first two picks, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, were set in stone weeks in advance. Penei Sewell and Ja’Marr Chase were locks as top-10 selections even if there was uncertainty about who would grab them.
From that point, you could take some educated betting risks. For instance, we bet on Jaycee Horn being the first cornerback taken last year. There wasn’t much difference between him and betting favorite Patrick Surtain II and it came down to scheme fit. The Carolina Panthers pounced on Horn with the eighth pick, and we cashed in a winning ticket.
Of course, there are times when something unpredictable happens, like the Las Vegas Raiders picking Clelin Ferrell fourth overall in 2019, but very rarely does this create chaos. There is still a foundation of knowledge to make sound wagers.
The 2022 NFL Draft looks to be a total crapshoot. The Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t tipping their hand with the first pick, although all signs point to a defensive end. The Detroit Lions also seem keen on a defensive end. But both teams have a ton of holes and could easily pivot elsewhere or trade down. That would have a ripple effect on the rest of the first round.
Travon Walker to be drafted under 3.5 is a bet we like in theory. However, the odds are way too low with it listed at –275 on FanDuel Sportsbook. To put this into some context, Chase Young was -300 to be drafted second overall in 2020. The latter was a lock. Walker going in the top three selections is far from certain.
Up and down the board, you’ll find betting on the 2022 NFL Draft just doesn’t make sense. The wagers that seem good are getting crap odds. Do yourself a favor and put that money on something else.
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