We’ve been on the lookout for a good baseball wager since MLB announced the season was going to be played. However, the uncertainty of how a 60-game slate will play out has made that hard. The best play just might be betting on the 2020 Cy Young winner. That is as long as you bet on a reliever
Only nine relief pitchers have ever won the Cy Young award with the most recent being Los Angeles Dodgers closer Eric Gagne in 2003. This year is going to be hugely different for pitchers, especially starters who may only get 12 or so starts in 2020. That could be even less if more teams follow the lead of the Seattle Mariners and run out six-man pitching staffs or get their Tampa Bay Rays on and employ openers.
By comparison, a dominant reliever on a good team could make anywhere from 25 to 35 appearances during the season. This is just one reason betting on a bullpen arm to be the 2020 Cy Young winner makes a lot more sense than a starter. Think about it this way, who is more likely to win the award, a starter with a 7-3 record, an ERA around 2.50 and close to 60 innings pitched or a closer with 20 saves, an ERA under 2.00 and 25/30 innings pitched?
Perhaps the only real downside for relief pitchers is ERA. If they have a couple of bad outings that balloon their ERA to above 3.00, it’s hard to see them getting many Cy Young votes. It’s certainly a tight rope to walk, but the betting odds on the 2020 Cy Young winner are much kinder to closers.
The league or reliever you select is irrelevant. Just go for the closers you think will receive the most save opportunities. Here is a look at a few of our favorite wagers.
Interesting read: How the hell do we play fantasy baseball in 2020?
Top reliever betting for the 2020 Cy Young winner
Aroldis Chapman / New York Yankees
+5000 William Hill / +7000 FanDuel
Editor’s note: This article was written before Aroldis Chapman tested positive for COVID-19. No timeframe for his return has been given nor have these odds been updated to reflect that. Until more information is known about the situation, you might want to steer clear of this wager.
We have actually seen Aroldis Chapman pitch what was essentially a 60-game stretch in his career when he was traded from the Yankees to the Chicago Cubs in 2016. He pitched in 28 out of the Cubbies 61 games, recording 16 saves with a 1.01 ERA. New York should be in a position to win a lot of games during the shortened season, so Chapman should have the opportunity to improve on that.
Kirby Yates / San Diego Padres
+8000 FanDuel
It’s kind of comically that Edwin Diaz is listed at +6500 in betting for the 2020 Cy Young winner, but Yates is available for +8000. Did the oddsmaker not watch either of these guys pitch last season? Yates was lights out in 2019 and very good in 2018. Diaz was a gas can. The issue for him will be if the Padres can provide enough save opportunities for him. If they do, Yates can be a strong candidate to win the award.
