Despite being a revelation last season, Deebo Samuel has a very murky fantasy football outlook for 2022. There are a lot of questions surrounding the wide receiver-cum-running back who surprised nearly everyone by finishing as the 10th highest scoring player in 0.5 PPR and 11th in full PPR.
Unfortunately, his range of outcomes heading into next season is massive due to his monstrous rushing volume during the second half of the year. Samuel had six carries, 22 yards and a touchdown during the first eight games of the season. In the final eight contests, he posted a 53/343/7 rushing line.
This came at the expense of his work in the passing game. Here are Samuel’s receiving splits in 2021 (The pass catcher missed week 13):
First 8 games: 49 receptions/882 yards/4 TDs
Final 8 games: 28 receptions/523 yards/2 TDs
That is massive. It also hints at the fact Deebo Samuel doesn’t have a cut and dry fantasy football outlook in 2022. No one has any idea on just how the San Francisco 49ers will deploy him after two entirely different utilization methods in 2021.
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What is Deebo Samuel’s fantasy football outlook in 2022?
There are two main concerns when it comes to Deebo Samuel’s fantasy football outlook in 2022. The first is obviously the 49ers run game. The South Carolina Gamecock was pressed into action as a rusher during the second half out of necessity more than anything else.
Eli Mitchell was banged up, Jeff Wilson Jr. wasn’t 100 percent, Raheem Mostert was on IR and Kyle Shanahan hates Trey Sermon. Samuel was the last man standing of sorts. The team needed someone to carry the ball and he’s great in that role.
However, the 49ers should be healthier at the running back position in 2022 which means there should be less of a need to use Samuel in the backfield. He will still see some touches, certainly more than in the first half of last season, but it is very unlikely he averages 6.6 carries per game as was the case to close out the season
Quarterback is the other variable that factors into Deebo Samuel having a murky fantasy football outlook in 2022. If Jimmy Garoppolo leaves San Francisco as expected, Trey Lance is starting, and he can handle a lot of those runs Shanahan was drawing up for his star receiver.
This will free Samuel to run more routes and operate as a traditional pass catcher, something the 49ers need. But who knows just how valuable that will be from a fantasy football perspective?
There are paths for Samuel to be a WR1 in 2022, although it comes with a great deal of uncertainty around him and his role. You should factor that risk into your draft preparations in both standard and dynasty leagues.
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