When looking at the best and worst NFL player prop bets for the upcoming season, it is important to note a very significant detail. These probably aren’t going to hit. They are all longshots that are designed more for fun than anything else. It’s something you can throw five or ten dollars at and hope for the best. This is the best kind of football betting in our view.
With that out of the way, we can now explore the best and worst NFL player prop bets this season. For us, the best wagers are ones that payout nicely while still having a realistic chance of happening. An example of a good prop bet is Dak Prescott leading the NFL in passing yards at +500. As we covered previously, the numbers say it’s possible and the return is solid.
On the other hand, betting the over or under on Baker Mayfield’s passing yard total in 2021 is a prime example of a bad player prop bet. At -112, the payout sucks. Additionally, there are way too many variables to hazard a guess about if he can surpass 4,000 yards this season. Nothing makes it worthwhile.
With that in mind, here are some of the best and worst NFL player prop bets for this season. Odds via Fanduel Sportsbook.
More Betting from The Touchback: The best and worst 2021 NFL win total bets
The best NFL player prop bets in 2021
Kyler Murray to win MVP (+2300)
This wager pretty much boils down to one question: Can the Arizona Cardinals make the playoffs? If they do, chances are Kyler Murray is in the MVP conversation. He made improvements as both a runner and a passer in 2020 and it seems likely he will keep progressing.
The former Oklahoma Sooner may not match 819 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground in 2021, but Murray should surpass the 4,000 passing yards and 26 touchdowns he posted last season. It’s a longshot, but there is a ton of upside here.
Davante Adams leads the NFL in receiving yards (+1300)
With the Green Bay Packers in full The Last Dance mode, this player prop bet becomes even more intriguing. Davante Adams recorded 1,374 receiving yards in 14 games last season. Had he played in all 16 contests in 2020 and maintained his 98.1 receiving yards per game average, Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target would have finished the year as the league leader in the category.
No Pack No: The 1997 Green Bay Packers were the biggest team of scumbags in sports history
The worst NFL player prop bets in 2021
Any Comeback Player of the Year bet
The problem with betting on Comeback Player of the Year is that the 2021 field is incredibly deep. Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Joe Burrow, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, Von Miller and Danielle Hunter are just a few of the candidates. You could make a case for any of them which means this wager is one to avoid.
Either Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year / Nick (+1100) or Joey (+1700)
Nick and Joey Bosa are amazing football players who could easily win NFL Defensive Player of the Year…if they managed to stay healthy. However, that has been a huge issue for both. The injury risk makes this a betting risk which isn’t completely reflected in the current odds. We’d be a taker at +2000 or above.
Related: The Touchback’s way too early NFL week 1 parlay
