Bijan Robinson is a lock to be a first-round pick during the upcoming NFL Draft. Even with the league devaluing the position as a whole, he’s still seen as one of the five best overall players. When we look at the fantasy football performance of 1st round running backs in their rookie season, there are reasons to be optimistic regarding his outlook in 2023.
Of the eight rushers (we don’t include Etienne due to injury) to have been selected in the opening round between 2017 and 2022, there were four top-12 finishes and six top-24 seasons. In other words, Robinson will be an RB2 at worst and his ceiling is RB1 if history is any indication. (Half-point PPR scoring).
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Fantasy football performance of 1st round running backs in their rookie season (2017-2022)
Najee Harris (2021)
Finish: RB4
The Pittsburgh Steelers were not a particularly good offensive team in 2021. In fact, their only plan of action was to give Najee Harris the ball. His 381 total touches as a rookie are mind-blowing. And while he wasn’t effective with them, the volume alone helped propel the running back to a top-5 finish.
Travis Etienne (2021)
Finish: N/A
Travis Etienne didn’t play a snap in 2021 due to an injury.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2020)
Finish: RB21
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ended up being taken in the first round of many 2020 fantasy football drafts and he failed to deliver. The logic was simple behind this was simple. The Kansas City Chiefs had the league’s best offense and won a Super Bowl with Damien Williams leading the backfield. We were all told CEH was an upgrade who would be featured as a receiver. Unfortunately, that did not happen.
Related: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a fantasy football nuisance
Josh Jacobs (2019)
Finish: RB17
Josh Jacobs had a very steady rookie year. He was also injured in weeks 14 and 16 which probably cost a lot of managers in the fantasy football playoffs. The only knock on the Las Vegas Raiders rusher during his first season was a lack of work in the passing game as he only caught 20 passes.
Saquon Barkley (2018)
Finish: RB1
Saquon Barkley is perhaps the most apt comparison for Bijan Robinson. Both entered the league with a tremendous amount of hype along with three-down back potential. Ultimately, it will be hard for the latter to reach the lofty heights of the New York Giants’ running back, who caught 91 passes, rushed for more than 1,300 yards and collected 15 touchdowns. This was a league-winning output for many managers.
Rashaad Penny
Finish: Outside top-50
Rashaad Penny was unable to beat out Chris Carson during the season and found playing time scarce for most of the year.
Sony Michel
Finish: RB28
There wasn’t much hype regarding Sony Michel in his first year because the New England Patriots backfield was as crowded as ever with James White catching passes, Rex Burkhead around and Cordarrelle Patterson occasionally featured.
Leonard Fournette (2017)
Finish: RB8
Leonard Fournette’s rookie campaign was not pretty. He averaged less than four years per carry. But the volume was there as he finished with 268 carries and 36 catches. His RB8 finish is all the more impressive when you consider he missed three games.
Christian McCaffrey (2017)
Finish: RB11
With Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton around, the Carolina Panthers were not in a rush to hand the ball off to their rookie running back. However, they leaned on Christian McCaffrey heavily in the passing game and he led the team in receptions and receiving yards.
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