Fantasy managers from Maine to Milpitas–that’s in the San Francisco Bay Area–are drooling over the Tyreek Hill trade. Some are talking up the Miami Dolphins offense with Tua Tagovailoa shaping up to be a top-five quarterback this season. Others want you to believe JuJu Smith-Schuster is going to be in the WR1 conversation.
Good luck with all of that. From a fantasy football perspective, the Tyreek Hill trade looks like a lose-lose proposition. It’s similar to the Cleveland Browns trading for Odell Beckham Jr. or the New England Patriots landing Josh Gordon. People are getting so excited about the possibilities that they are ignoring some huge red flags.
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The cold hard facts of the Tyreek Hill trade
Kansas City’s offense is way worse
The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t replacing Hill with Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman or whoever they possibly draft. It is impossible to find a player with his unique skillset that is as much about speed as it is his ability to improvise. How many times did Patrick Mahomes hold on to the ball way too long only to spot number ten in a pocket of space or behind the defense?
Speaking of Mahomes, his fantasy football output is sure to take a dip in 2022. The most logical outcome here is that Kansas City is planning to run more this year which means his attempts will decline. The passer threw 35 or more times in 12 games last season. That seems unlikely with Hill no longer in town.
Travis Kelce should be okay, although there has to be some concern about Smith-Schuster clogging up the intermediate parts of the field. Regardless, the outlook for the Chiefs offense is noticeably worse today.
Hill and the Fins are no sure things
Forget about the money. The Tyreek Hill trade doesn’t happen if teams didn’t start finding ways to bottle him up last season. On too many occasions, the wide receiver was a nonfactor. He only topped 100 yards three times, five of his nine touchdown came in two games and Hill had eight games with less than 60 receiving yards.
Teams were able to stop the pass catcher from burning them over the top. Sometimes the dink-and-dunk game worked when that happened and on other occasions it did not. Hill having Jaylen Waddle lining up with him is an improvement on Byron Pringle. However, let’s not pretend Mike Gesicki, Cedrick Wilson, Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert are the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf.
What’s more, Tagovailoa is an extremely one-dimensional quarterback relying exclusively on short passes. He had the second-fewest number of 25-yard completions and fourth lowest average depth of target last season. Yes, he was returning from an injury, but this is still a huge cause for concern.
A lose-lose deal
The fantasy football outlook for both Hill and the Kansas City Chiefs in 2022 is worse now than if they had stayed together. This doesn’t mean these players should be avoided. But make sure you move them down your draft board.
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